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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.