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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."